{"id":11788,"date":"2015-03-02T05:57:26","date_gmt":"2015-03-02T05:57:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.icmarkets.com\/?p=11788"},"modified":"2015-03-19T03:46:22","modified_gmt":"2015-03-19T03:46:22","slug":"monday-2nd-march-european-open-briefing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/monday-2nd-march-european-open-briefing\/","title":{"rendered":"Monday 2nd March: European Open Briefing"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n\t<strong>Global Markets:<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n\t\tAsian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.15 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.30 %, Hang Seng rose 0.20 %, ASX rallied 0.60 %\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tCommodities: Gold at $1220 (+0.60 %), Silver at $16.75 (+1.15 %), WTI Oil at $49.39 (-0.75 %), Brent Oil at $62.17 (-0.05 %)\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tRates: US 10 year yield at 2.009, UK 10 year yield at 1.79, German 10 year yield at 0.323\n\t<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\n\t<strong>News &amp; Data:<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n\t\tAustralia AIG Manufacturing Index 45.4, Previous: 49.0\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tAustralia MI Inflation Gauge 0.0 %, Previous: 0.1 %\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tAustralia HIA New Home Sales 1.8 % m\/m, Previous: -1.9 %\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tAustralia Business Inventories -0.8 % m\/m, Expected: 0.1 %, Previous: 1.2 %\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tChina Official Manufacturing PMI 49.9, Expected: 49.7, Previous: 49.8\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tChina Official Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.9, Previous: 53.7\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tChina HSBC Manufacturing PMI 50.7, Expected: 50.1, Previous: 50.1\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tChina Cuts Interest Rates as Slowdown Fears Mount &#8211; Financial Times\n\t<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\n\t<strong>CFTC Positioning Data:<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n\t\tEUR shorts at 178,000 vs. 186,000 shorts prior week\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tGBP shorts at 21,870 vs. 28,798 shorts prior week\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tJPY shorts at 47,512 vs 49,091 shorts prior week\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tAUD shorts at 63,154 vs. 53,831 shorts prior week\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tCAD shorts at 36,245 vs. 32,842 shorts prior week\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tCHF shorts at 5085 vs. 6044 shorts prior week\n\t<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\n\t<strong>Markets Update:<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\tAsian equity indices are mostly higher this morning after China cut rates over the weekend to boost growth. The Chinese PMI data beat expectations, both the official and the HSBC release. However, the Aussie Dollar, which usually benefits from positive Chinese economic data, failed to rally as traders increased bets that the RBA will cut rates by 25 bps tomorrow. AUD\/USD dropped to a low of 0.7760 overnight and next support is seen at 0.7740. Most analysts see a rate cut as very likely, but if the RBA decides to remain on hold, we could see a large short squeeze in the pair, possibly targeting again the 0.79 level. NZD\/USD followed the Aussie lower, but the pair has so far found support at the 0.7520 level. Meanwhile, price action in USD\/CAD remains choppy and the pair is currently consolidating around the 1.25 level. The failure to break above 1.2540 suggests we could see some downside pressure in the near-term, with 1.2380 the next bear target.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<strong>Upcoming Events:<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n\t\t08:15 GMT &#8211; Spanish Manufacturing PMI (55.0)\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t08:45 GMT &#8211; Italian Manufacturing PMI (50.3)\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t08:50 GMT &#8211; French Manufacturing PMI (47.7)\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t08:55 GMT &#8211; German Manufacturing PMI (50.9)\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t09:00 GMT &#8211; Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI (51.1)\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t09:30 GMT &#8211; UK Manufacturing PMI (53.4)\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t13:30 GMT &#8211; US Personal Income (0.4 %)\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t13:30 GMT &#8211; US Personal Spending (-0.1 %)\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t13:30 GMT &#8211; US Core PCE Price Index (0.1 %)\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t13:30 GMT &#8211; Canadian Current Account (-C$7.4bln)\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t14:45 GMT &#8211; US Manufacturing PMI (54.3)\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\t15:00 GMT &#8211; US ISM Manufacturing PMI (53.1)\n\t<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\n\t<strong>The Week Ahead (Key Data\/Events):<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<u>Tuesday, March 03<sup>rd<\/sup><\/u>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t03:30 GMT &#8211; RBA Interest Rate Decision (2.00 %)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t03:30 GMT &#8211; RBA Statement\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t06:45 GMT &#8211; Swiss GDP (0.3 % q\/q, 1.7 % y\/y)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t07:00 GMT &#8211; German Retail Sales (0.4 % m\/m, 2.6 % y\/y)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t09:30 GMT &#8211; UK Construction PMI (59.0)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t13:30 GMT &#8211; Canadian GDP\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<u>Wednesday, March 04<sup>th<\/sup><\/u>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t00:30 GMT &#8211; Australia GDP (0.7 % q\/q, 2.6 % y\/y)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t08:15 GMT &#8211; Spanish Services PMI (56.9)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t08:45 GMT &#8211; Italian Services PMI (51.4)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t08:50 GMT &#8211; French Services PMI (53.4)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t08:55 GMT &#8211; German Services PMI (55.5)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t09:00 GMT &#8211; Euro Zone Services PMI (57.5)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t09:30 GMT &#8211; UK Services PMI (57.5)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t10:00 GMT &#8211; Euro Zone Retail Sales (0.1 % m\/m)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t13:15 GMT &#8211; US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (220k)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t14:45 GMT &#8211; US Markit Services PMI\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t15:00 GMT &#8211; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (56.5)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t15:00 GMT &#8211; Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision (1.00 %)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<u>Thursday, March 06<sup>th<\/sup><\/u>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t00:30 GMT &#8211; Australia Retail Sales (0.4 %)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t12:00 GMT &#8211; Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (0.50 %)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t12:45 GMT &#8211; ECB Interest Rate Decision (0.05 %)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t13:30 GMT &#8211; ECB Press Conference\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t13:30 GMT &#8211; US Initial Jobless Claims (319k)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t15:00 GMT &#8211; US Factory Orders (0.3 %)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t15:00 GMT &#8211; Canadian Ivey PMI (46.2)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t<u>Friday, March 07<sup>th<\/sup><\/u>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t07:00 GMT &#8211; German Industrial Production (0.5 %)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t08:15 GMT &#8211; Swiss CPI (-0.1 % m\/m, -0.6 % y\/y)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t10:00 GMT &#8211; Euro Zone GDP (0.3 % q\/q, 0.9 % y\/y)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t13:30 GMT &#8211; US Nonfarm Payrolls (240k)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t13:30 GMT &#8211; US Unemployment Rate (5.6 %)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t13:30 GMT &#8211; US Average Hourly Earnings (0.2 %)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t13:30 GMT &#8211; US Trade Balance (-$41.4bln)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t13:30 GMT &#8211; Canadian Trade Balance (C$0.3bln)\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t13:30 GMT &#8211; Canadian Building Permits (5.5 %)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Global Markets: Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.15 %, Shanghai Composite [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":12469,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[216,217,215],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11788","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forex-news-daily","category-forex-news-weekly","category-market-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11788","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11788"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11788\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13003,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11788\/revisions\/13003"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12469"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11788"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11788"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11788"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}