{"id":78196,"date":"2026-02-18T19:33:36","date_gmt":"2026-02-18T08:33:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/?p=78196"},"modified":"2026-02-18T19:33:37","modified_gmt":"2026-02-18T08:33:37","slug":"trade-usdjpy-on-the-us-core-pce-price-index-data-release","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/trade-usdjpy-on-the-us-core-pce-price-index-data-release\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade USDJPY on the US Core PCE Price Index Data release"},"content":{"rendered":"\n



The Federal Reserve\u2019s favourite inflation indicator is set to be released in the last trading session of the week on Friday, and all indicators are pointing to this being a crucial data point with regard to when we see the next interest rate cut from the FOMC. Wednesday\u2019s Fed minutes look likely to confirm that most current members still have a significant concern with the level of inflation in the economy and therefore anything off expectation with the PCE data should see big moves in the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market is expecting the month-on-month number to show a 0.3% increase with the year-on-year data coming in around 2.9% or 3% which is still well above the FOMC\u2019s desired 2% target. Anything off these expectations is likely to see big moves in Fed rate expectations and therefore a strong reaction in the dollar, anything +\/- 0.2% on either metric should lead to extensive moves and provide traders with good trading opportunities on the release<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USDJPY is again nicely place for big moves on this data as it could reflect a bigger disparity in interest rate differentials removing forward, especially if the data comes out lower increasing the likelihood and speed of a Fed rate cut against an anticipated Bank of Japan hike. USDJPY has decreased sharply over the last week since election results were announced confirming a majority for PM Takaichi and these moves should see an exacerbated reaction to Friday\u2019s data with a lower result likely to see a challenge of recent lows and possibly a break south, whilst a stronger number may get a bigger move north back into recent ranges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resistance 2: 156.74 \u2013 Trendline Resistance<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resistance 1: 154.65 \u2013 February 11 High<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Support 1: 152.25 \u2013 February Low<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Support 2: 151.24 \u2013 Long-Term Trendline Support<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Federal Reserve\u2019s favourite inflation indicator is set to be released […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":78199,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[462],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-78196","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-news"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78196","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78196"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78196\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":78200,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78196\/revisions\/78200"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78199"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78196"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78196"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78196"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}