{"id":79581,"date":"2026-04-13T14:51:58","date_gmt":"2026-04-13T04:51:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/?p=79581"},"modified":"2026-04-13T14:51:59","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T04:51:59","slug":"ic-markets-asia-fundamental-forecast-13-april-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/ic-markets-asia-fundamental-forecast-13-april-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 13 April 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>IC Markets &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 13 April 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What happened in the U.S. session?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Ceasefire\u2011driven relief rally in equities, with energy and defence names outperforming, while Treasuries and FX markets repriced Fed\u2011cut expectations downward on the back of still\u2011elevated oil\u2011linked inflation and credit\u2011risk concerns, keeping the dollar and front\u2011end yields supported and volatility elevated even as headline risk\u2011off sentiment eased slightly.<br \/><br \/><strong>What does it mean for the Asia Session?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Reverberations from the fragile US\u2013Iran ceasefire and easing energy\u2011price shock, which have already lifted regional equities and weighed on oil and the dollar; at the same time, will build ahead of key Chinese data releases later in the week, while Asia\u2011specific forums and FX\u2011carry dynamics will add intraday noise to stocks, rates, and emerging\u2011market currencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u200b<br \/><strong>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<br \/><br \/><strong>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>The US Dollar Index (DXY) is experiencing downward pressure, trading around the 98.60-98.70 level amid reduced safe-haven demand. This follows a weekly drop influenced by hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire and softer-than-expected US inflation data, allowing risk-sensitive currencies like the euro (near 1.1720), pound, and Aussie to gain ground.<br \/><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%\u20133.75% at its March 17\u201318, 2026, meeting, amid rising oil prices from the US-Israel war against Iran and persistent inflation pressures, delaying any 2026 cuts potentially to September.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market weakening further as nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 in February 2026 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in January.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Officials face tilted risks from geopolitical tensions, elevated oil prices, and sticky inflation, with CPI steady at 2.4% year-over-year in February 2026, headline PCE at 2.8% in January, and core PCE rising to 3.1%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic activity has cooled after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow now estimating Q1 2026 growth at around 2.1%\u20132.7% amid softer consumer spending and labor data.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>December 2025&#8217;s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, 2026 GDP growth at 2.3%, and core PCE at 2.5%, with the dot plot signaling one more cut in 2026 to a median 3.4% funds rate; March updates may reflect softer labor and inflation upticks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a softening labor market, inflation above target, and new oil shocks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with ongoing divisions and possible hawkish dissents on rate cuts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.<br \/><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 April 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gold (XAU)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold is entering the trading week of Monday in a technically important zone just above 4,700 USD per ounce, after a mild correction from January\u2019s record highs, yet still markedly higher than a year ago. Market commentary points to a tug\u2011of\u2011war between strong structural demand from central banks and macro hedging flows on one side, and short\u2011term sensitivity to U.S. real yields and dollar moves on the other.<br \/><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from AUD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Australian Dollar (AUD) saw modest fluctuations today, primarily against the USD, trading around the 0.7050-0.7070 range amid ongoing global risk sentiment and technical pressures. Forecasts suggest potential upside toward 0.7255-0.7475 if resistance breaks, supported by bullish channel trends and moving averages, though a drop below 0.6635 could signal deeper declines to 0.6355.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold its cash rate at 3.85% at the March 16-17, 2026 policy meeting, following the widely anticipated 25 basis point hike to 3.85% in early February after persistent inflation pressures from late 2025. While some banks like CBA, NAB, and Westpac now forecast a further 25 basis point rise to 4.10% as soon as May if inflation data remains sticky, consensus tilts toward a pause in March to assess incoming monthly CPI and labor market signals. The February hike reversed prior cuts, entering mildly restrictive territory amid capacity pressures, with the board emphasizing data dependence.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation remains elevated, with December 2025 CPI at 3.8% year-on-year and trimmed mean at 3.3%, above the 2\u20133% target midpoint. RBA&#8217;s February Statement revised forecasts higher, projecting trimmed-mean inflation to peak in mid-2026 above 3% and remain elevated through early 2027, driven by services, housing, and demand resilience despite some monthly cooling, such as January&#8217;s 0.2% MoM gauge. Monthly CPI data continues to highlight core stickiness beyond energy rebates, delaying the target return to late 2027 or beyond.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>January 2026 monthly indicators showed modest easing, but headline CPI risks upward surprises from housing (up recently) and services amid firm domestic demand. Trimmed mean pressures persist from wage growth and capacity constraints, with consumer expectations ticking to 5% YoY in February surveys. Enhanced monthly reporting sharpens vigilance on potential broad-based pick-up.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The labor market shows softening, with unemployment around 4.1-4.4%, down slightly to 4.1% in December, but unit labor costs are elevated due to subdued productivity. Household spending faces higher borrowing costs post-hike, yet private demand recovery sustains capacity strains. Vulnerabilities persist amid resilient employment dynamics.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Global growth modestly revised up but tempered by geopolitics and commodity volatility; policy now restrictive post-February, with the RBA balancing inflation against employment risks. Data from the monthly CPI and Q1 GDP will guide, amid household debt sensitivities.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sustained restrictive stance post-February anchors inflation return to target, upholding dual mandate with flexibility to new risks like further inflation upticks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markets price a March hold at 3.85%, with big four banks split: CBA, NAB, Westpac eye May hike to 4.10% if persistence continues, while others see limited upside unless acceleration. Upcoming monthly CPI pivotal for Q2 trajectory.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Policy vigilance counters inflation stickiness against household fragilities and global uncertainties, reaffirming adaptability under dual mandate.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Base case favors March hold with risks tilted hawkish for further hikes if data is hot; monthly indicators key to 2026 path.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 5 to 6 May 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from NZD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is trading in a relatively narrow range today, influenced by a mix of regional risk\u2011sentiment themes, lingering dovish\u2011leaning RBNZ policy, and a softer\u2011but\u2011still\u2011resilient US dollar. Markets are mostly consolidating after last week\u2019s moves around geopolitical ease and the RBNZ decision, rather than reacting to any major new NZ\u2011specific headline today.<br \/><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Reserve Bank of New Zealand&#8217;s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 8 April 2026 Monetary Policy Review, aligning with unanimous market consensus from Reuters polls and previews.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The MPC continues its data-dependent &#8220;wait-and-see&#8221; approach after February&#8217;s pause, balancing stimulus from prior 325 basis point cuts against inflation&#8217;s path back to the 2% target, with readiness for gradual normalization only if recovery strengthens or inflation exceeds forecasts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Headline CPI, last at 3.1%, is on track to re-enter the 1-3% band in Q2 2026 and hit 2% by mid-2027, aided by spare capacity, moderating wages, and softer food\/fuel prices; two-year business inflation expectations have ticked up slightly to 2.37%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Household spending and housing remain subdued amid cautious consumption, low net migration, and labor market softness, though easing retail rates support budgets; high-frequency GDP indicators show steadying momentum in an early recovery phase.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Accommodative borrowing costs from the low OCR are boosting mortgage approvals and sentiment, but business credit growth lags due to uneven confidence; overall stimulus persists below the 3% neutral rate.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Risks are balanced, with a favorable global environment\u2014including stronger dairy\/meat exports and a softer NZ dollar\u2014offsetting oil shocks and prior China\/US trade worries; vigilance remains on second-round inflation effects.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Forecasts point to potential OCR hikes starting late 2026 (e.g., December) or early 2027 to 2.50% by year-end if activity\/inflation firms, but policy stays supportive if recovery unfolds gradually as expected.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 27 May 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Medium Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from JPY today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>The Japanese Yen traded steadily amid key data releases like the Tertiary Industry Index and Industrial Production, plus new USD\/JPY futures listings on Osaka Exchange, but lacked major catalysts as USD\/JPY lingered near 159-160 following officials&#8217; intervention warnings and BOJ&#8217;s cautious inflation outlook. Broader pressures from global uncertainties, including US-Iran dynamics, continued to weigh on the yen, which has depreciated notably over recent months despite stabilization efforts.<br \/><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan meets on 18\u201319 April 2026, with markets anticipating the short-term policy rate to remain at 0.75%, as the bank continues evaluating the December 2025 and prior hikes&#8217; effects amid data-dependent normalization.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The BOJ will target the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75% and indicate future hikes hinge on impacts to lending, financing, and activity, with Governor Ueda signaling scrutiny of data for potential moves in April or later meetings.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>JGB tapering advances per plan, cutting outright purchases by \u00a5400 billion quarterly through Q1 2026 and slowing to \u00a5200 billion from April onward, targeting roughly \u00a52-3 trillion monthly by mid-2026, adjustable for market stability<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Japan\u2019s economy maintains moderate growth into Q1 2026, building on the Q4 2025 rebound via exports and fiscal measures, though manufacturing sentiment holds soft amid overseas demand weakness and yen pressures.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Core CPI (ex-fresh food) likely stays near 2.3-2.5% y\/y in early 2026. Tokyo prints off prior highs but above 2%, while core-core hovers around 2.6%, reflecting sustained but easing inflationary forces.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Input costs ease further from import peaks, yet services inflation, 5% wage targets in shunto talks, and anchored expectations above 2% support price persistence, with upside risks from yen and geopolitics.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Near-term real GDP may ease below trend due to tightening and external shocks like Iran tensions, but negative real rates, wage gains, and stimulus should underpin consumption and capex rebound.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Medium-term, overseas recovery, labor shortages, and productivity lifts are set to fuel wages and core inflation near\/above 2%, enabling gradual hikes toward 1% if conditions align.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 27 to 28 April 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil markets are sharply higher after the U.S. moved to impose a blockade\u2011style naval operation on vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports via the Strait of Hormuz, reviving fears of a major Middle East supply shock. Brent crude has jumped to around 102\u2013103 dollars per barrel while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has similarly surged above 103 dollars, after a brief plunge last week when a short\u2011term U.S.\u2013Iran ceasefire and temporary reopening of the Strait had calmed prices.<br \/><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Strong Bullish<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IC Markets &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 13 April 2026 What [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":79410,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215,339],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-79581","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis","category-recent-posts"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79581","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79581"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79581\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":79582,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79581\/revisions\/79582"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79410"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79581"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79581"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79581"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}