{"id":79716,"date":"2026-04-16T18:15:39","date_gmt":"2026-04-16T08:15:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/?p=79716"},"modified":"2026-04-16T18:15:46","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T08:15:46","slug":"ic-markets-asia-fundamental-forecast-16-april-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/ic-markets-asia-fundamental-forecast-16-april-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 16 April 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>IC Markets &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 16 April 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What happened in the U.S. session?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>U.S. markets embraced relief on April 14-15 as softer March PPI data eased inflation fears despite a high yearly print, while U.S.-Iran de-escalation hopes fueled a risk-on rally in stocks (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq records) and a sharp oil pullback, with the dollar softening but stable; no other major macro releases as CPI occurred, amplifying focus on these headlines.<br \/><br \/><strong>What does it mean for the Asia Session?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Asian markets face a risk-on tilt from US-Iran talk hopes reviving equities and capping oil spikes, alongside China trade figures and BOJ updates, but traders must monitor Hormuz developments for FX and commodity swings in USD weakness and CNH strength. Volatility persists from conflict risks, with tech and AI themes buoying benchmarks despite IMF downturn warnings if tensions drag on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u200b<br \/><strong>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/>Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/><strong>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>The US dollar is consolidating after a choppy run driven by the abortive US\u2013Iran peace talks and renewed Middle East tensions, which initially lifted safe\u2011haven demand and oil\u2011linked inflation concerns. Underpinning the dollar\u2019s resilience is stickier\u2011than\u2011hoped US inflation and a still\u2011hawkish\u2011leaning Federal Reserve, which are keeping US yields relatively high versus other major\u2011economy peers, even as traders remain sensitive to any fresh headlines on the Iran conflict or oil\u2011market disruptions.<br \/><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%\u20133.75% at its March 17\u201318, 2026, meeting, amid rising oil prices from the US-Israel war against Iran and persistent inflation pressures, delaying any 2026 cuts potentially to September.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market weakening further as nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 in February 2026 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in January.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Officials face tilted risks from geopolitical tensions, elevated oil prices, and sticky inflation, with CPI steady at 2.4% year-over-year in February 2026, headline PCE at 2.8% in January, and core PCE rising to 3.1%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic activity has cooled after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow now estimating Q1 2026 growth at around 2.1%\u20132.7% amid softer consumer spending and labor data.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>December 2025&#8217;s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, 2026 GDP growth at 2.3%, and core PCE at 2.5%, with the dot plot signaling one more cut in 2026 to a median 3.4% funds rate; March updates may reflect softer labor and inflation upticks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a softening labor market, inflation above target, and new oil shocks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with ongoing divisions and possible hawkish dissents on rate cuts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.<br \/><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 April 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Medium Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gold (XAU)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold prices have shown resilience amid ongoing global economic pressures, with recent trading reflecting a slight dip but strong yearly gains driven by safe-haven demand, a weakening US dollar, and geopolitical uncertainties. On April 15, 2026, spot gold settled at around $4,825 per troy ounce, down 0.34% from the prior day, following a 3.62% monthly decline yet remaining 44% higher year-over-year after peaking near $5,608 earlier in 2026.<br \/><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Weak Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Employment Change (1:30 am GMT)<br \/><br \/>Unemployment Rate (1:30 am GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from AUD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>AUD rallied 0.5% to 70.94 US cents as oil retreated and stocks rose amid US Navy actions on Iran, though intraday volatility persists from mixed global headlines. Earlier April trends showed AUD stabilizing above 0.69 after lows near 0.6833, buoyed by ceasefire talks despite escalation risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold its cash rate at 3.85% at the March 16-17, 2026 policy meeting, following the widely anticipated 25 basis point hike to 3.85% in early February after persistent inflation pressures from late 2025. While some banks like CBA, NAB, and Westpac now forecast a further 25 basis point rise to 4.10% as soon as May if inflation data remains sticky, consensus tilts toward a pause in March to assess incoming monthly CPI and labor market signals. The February hike reversed prior cuts, entering mildly restrictive territory amid capacity pressures, with the board emphasizing data dependence.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation remains elevated, with December 2025 CPI at 3.8% year-on-year and trimmed mean at 3.3%, above the 2\u20133% target midpoint. RBA&#8217;s February Statement revised forecasts higher, projecting trimmed-mean inflation to peak in mid-2026 above 3% and remain elevated through early 2027, driven by services, housing, and demand resilience despite some monthly cooling, such as January&#8217;s 0.2% MoM gauge. Monthly CPI data continues to highlight core stickiness beyond energy rebates, delaying the target return to late 2027 or beyond.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>January 2026 monthly indicators showed modest easing, but headline CPI risks upward surprises from housing (up recently) and services amid firm domestic demand. Trimmed mean pressures persist from wage growth and capacity constraints, with consumer expectations ticking to 5% YoY in February surveys. Enhanced monthly reporting sharpens vigilance on potential broad-based pick-up.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The labor market shows softening, with unemployment around 4.1-4.4%, down slightly to 4.1% in December, but unit labor costs are elevated due to subdued productivity. Household spending faces higher borrowing costs post-hike, yet private demand recovery sustains capacity strains. Vulnerabilities persist amid resilient employment dynamics.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Global growth modestly revised up but tempered by geopolitics and commodity volatility; policy now restrictive post-February, with the RBA balancing inflation against employment risks. Data from the monthly CPI and Q1 GDP will guide, amid household debt sensitivities.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sustained restrictive stance post-February anchors inflation return to target, upholding dual mandate with flexibility to new risks like further inflation upticks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markets price a March hold at 3.85%, with big four banks split: CBA, NAB, Westpac eye May hike to 4.10% if persistence continues, while others see limited upside unless acceleration. Upcoming monthly CPI pivotal for Q2 trajectory.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Policy vigilance counters inflation stickiness against household fragilities and global uncertainties, reaffirming adaptability under dual mandate.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Base case favors March hold with risks tilted hawkish for further hikes if data is hot; monthly indicators key to 2026 path.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 5 to 6 May 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Strong Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from NZD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The New Zealand Dollar today is mainly reacting to global risk sentiment, US dollar direction, and expectations for Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy rather than a single domestic shock. That means kiwi traders are likely focusing on any fresh US data, changes in commodity sentiment, and signals from New Zealand inflation or growth indicators, because those are the factors most likely to move NZD\/USD in the short term.<br \/><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Reserve Bank of New Zealand&#8217;s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 8 April 2026 Monetary Policy Review, aligning with unanimous market consensus from Reuters polls and previews.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The MPC continues its data-dependent &#8220;wait-and-see&#8221; approach after February&#8217;s pause, balancing stimulus from prior 325 basis point cuts against inflation&#8217;s path back to the 2% target, with readiness for gradual normalization only if recovery strengthens or inflation exceeds forecasts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Headline CPI, last at 3.1%, is on track to re-enter the 1-3% band in Q2 2026 and hit 2% by mid-2027, aided by spare capacity, moderating wages, and softer food\/fuel prices; two-year business inflation expectations have ticked up slightly to 2.37%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Household spending and housing remain subdued amid cautious consumption, low net migration, and labor market softness, though easing retail rates support budgets; high-frequency GDP indicators show steadying momentum in an early recovery phase.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Accommodative borrowing costs from the low OCR are boosting mortgage approvals and sentiment, but business credit growth lags due to uneven confidence; overall stimulus persists below the 3% neutral rate.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Risks are balanced, with a favorable global environment\u2014including stronger dairy\/meat exports and a softer NZ dollar\u2014offsetting oil shocks and prior China\/US trade worries; vigilance remains on second-round inflation effects.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Forecasts point to potential OCR hikes starting late 2026 (e.g., December) or early 2027 to 2.50% by year-end if activity\/inflation firms, but policy stays supportive if recovery unfolds gradually as expected.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 27 May 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Medium Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from JPY today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>The Japanese yen is trading weaker versus the US dollar in the mid\u2011158 area of USD\/JPY, caught between a stubborn 160\u2011level ceiling and ongoing speculation about the Bank of Japan\u2019s April policy stance. While technical views suggest a short\u2011term dip toward 158.35 before a possible re\u2011test of near\u2011159.60, the broader backdrop remains unfavorable for the yen due to BoJ policy ambiguity, elevated oil prices, and safe\u2011haven demand for the US dollar amid geopolitical strain.<br \/><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan meets on 18\u201319 April 2026, with markets anticipating the short-term policy rate to remain at 0.75%, as the bank continues evaluating the December 2025 and prior hikes&#8217; effects amid data-dependent normalization.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The BOJ will target the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75% and indicate future hikes hinge on impacts to lending, financing, and activity, with Governor Ueda signaling scrutiny of data for potential moves in April or later meetings.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>JGB tapering advances per plan, cutting outright purchases by \u00a5400 billion quarterly through Q1 2026 and slowing to \u00a5200 billion from April onward, targeting roughly \u00a52-3 trillion monthly by mid-2026, adjustable for market stability<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Japan\u2019s economy maintains moderate growth into Q1 2026, building on the Q4 2025 rebound via exports and fiscal measures, though manufacturing sentiment holds soft amid overseas demand weakness and yen pressures.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Core CPI (ex-fresh food) likely stays near 2.3-2.5% y\/y in early 2026. Tokyo prints off prior highs but above 2%, while core-core hovers around 2.6%, reflecting sustained but easing inflationary forces.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Input costs ease further from import peaks, yet services inflation, 5% wage targets in shunto talks, and anchored expectations above 2% support price persistence, with upside risks from yen and geopolitics.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Near-term real GDP may ease below trend due to tightening and external shocks like Iran tensions, but negative real rates, wage gains, and stimulus should underpin consumption and capex rebound.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Medium-term, overseas recovery, labor shortages, and productivity lifts are set to fuel wages and core inflation near\/above 2%, enabling gradual hikes toward 1% if conditions align.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 27 to 28 April 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil markets remain tense amid the ongoing US-Iran tensions and Hormuz disruptions, but prices slipped slightly to around $94-95 for Brent as diplomatic hopes temper supply fears; in Ghana, the NPA lowered fuel price floors marginally while the government steps in to subsidize increases, aiming to stabilize pump prices at GH\u00a213.27 for petrol and GH\u00a216.10 for diesel amid global pressures.<br \/><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IC Markets &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 16 April 2026 What [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":79410,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215,339],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-79716","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis","category-recent-posts"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79716","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79716"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79716\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":79717,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79716\/revisions\/79717"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79410"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79716"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79716"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79716"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}