{"id":79754,"date":"2026-04-17T16:48:32","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T06:48:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/?p=79754"},"modified":"2026-04-17T16:48:35","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T06:48:35","slug":"ic-markets-asia-fundamental-forecast-17-april-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/ic-markets-asia-fundamental-forecast-17-april-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 17 April 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>IC Markets &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 17 April 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What happened in the U.S. session?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>A slightly hotter\u2011than\u2011expected labor\u2011market tone, as weekly initial jobless claims undershot consensus and reinforced the view that the Fed will remain cautious on aggressive easing despite geopolitical overhangs from the Iran\u2011related conflict. This backdrop, combined with record\u2011high closes in the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq and continued de\u2011escalation optimism in the Middle East, boosted risk\u2011on flows into U.S. equity futures, tech\u2011heavy indices, and the dollar.<br \/><br \/><strong>What does it mean for the Asia Session?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Updates on US\u2013Iran negotiations and the status of the Strait of Hormuz, since any shift in the perceived war risk can quickly move oil, global equities, and inflation\u2011sensitive assets. Regional central\u2011bank cues, especially from the Bank of Japan ahead of its mid\u2011month meeting, and the confirmation of China\u2019s early\u2011year growth rebound will also shape flows into equities, FX, and commodities, with the yen, energy, and technology\u2011linked names remaining particularly sensitive to the day\u2019s headlines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u200b<br \/><strong>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>FOMC Member Waller Speaks (6:00 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/><strong>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>The US dollar showed limited movement amid a quiet economic calendar and lingering Middle East tensions influencing trader sentiment. With no major US data releases scheduled, the Dollar Index (DXY) hovered near recent lows around 98-99, reflecting a mix of safe-haven support from stalled US-Iran talks and pressure from risk-on flows favoring currencies like the Australian dollar.<br \/><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%\u20133.75% at its March 17\u201318, 2026, meeting, amid rising oil prices from the US-Israel war against Iran and persistent inflation pressures, delaying any 2026 cuts potentially to September.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market weakening further as nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 in February 2026 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in January.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Officials face tilted risks from geopolitical tensions, elevated oil prices, and sticky inflation, with CPI steady at 2.4% year-over-year in February 2026, headline PCE at 2.8% in January, and core PCE rising to 3.1%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic activity has cooled after robust Q4 2025 growth near 5%, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow now estimating Q1 2026 growth at around 2.1%\u20132.7% amid softer consumer spending and labor data.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>December 2025&#8217;s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median of 4.5%, 2026 GDP growth at 2.3%, and core PCE at 2.5%, with the dot plot signaling one more cut in 2026 to a median 3.4% funds rate; March updates may reflect softer labor and inflation upticks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee maintains its data-dependent stance amid a softening labor market, inflation above target, and new oil shocks, likely holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% with ongoing divisions and possible hawkish dissents on rate cuts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The FOMC continues its adjusted quantitative tightening, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves post-2025 program adjustments.<br \/><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29 April 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Medium Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gold (XAU)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>FOMC Member Waller Speaks (6:00 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold prices showed modest gains, holding steady around $4,800-$4,850 per ounce amid ongoing Middle East tensions and safe-haven demand, though the metal remained on track for a weekly decline after five weeks of gains. Forecasts suggested a trading range of $4,701-$4,996, with recovery potential driven by US Dollar weakness ahead of key jobs data and oil price stabilization following Trump administration comments on Iran-related supply issues.<br \/><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from AUD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>AUD\/USD rose 0.66% to 0.7172, with forecasts eyeing 0.71 by quarter-end and 0.73 in 12 months; however, oil price surges and Strait of Hormuz risks capped upside amid vacillating USD sentiment. Technicals suggest mild bullish bias above 0.6976 Fibonacci support, though reversals below 0.6985 could target 0.6775.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hold its cash rate at 3.85% at the March 16-17, 2026 policy meeting, following the widely anticipated 25 basis point hike to 3.85% in early February after persistent inflation pressures from late 2025. While some banks like CBA, NAB, and Westpac now forecast a further 25 basis point rise to 4.10% as soon as May if inflation data remains sticky, consensus tilts toward a pause in March to assess incoming monthly CPI and labor market signals. The February hike reversed prior cuts, entering mildly restrictive territory amid capacity pressures, with the board emphasizing data dependence.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation remains elevated, with December 2025 CPI at 3.8% year-on-year and trimmed mean at 3.3%, above the 2\u20133% target midpoint. RBA&#8217;s February Statement revised forecasts higher, projecting trimmed-mean inflation to peak in mid-2026 above 3% and remain elevated through early 2027, driven by services, housing, and demand resilience despite some monthly cooling, such as January&#8217;s 0.2% MoM gauge. Monthly CPI data continues to highlight core stickiness beyond energy rebates, delaying the target return to late 2027 or beyond.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>January 2026 monthly indicators showed modest easing, but headline CPI risks upward surprises from housing (up recently) and services amid firm domestic demand. Trimmed mean pressures persist from wage growth and capacity constraints, with consumer expectations ticking to 5% YoY in February surveys. Enhanced monthly reporting sharpens vigilance on potential broad-based pick-up.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The labor market shows softening, with unemployment around 4.1-4.4%, down slightly to 4.1% in December, but unit labor costs are elevated due to subdued productivity. Household spending faces higher borrowing costs post-hike, yet private demand recovery sustains capacity strains. Vulnerabilities persist amid resilient employment dynamics.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Global growth modestly revised up but tempered by geopolitics and commodity volatility; policy now restrictive post-February, with the RBA balancing inflation against employment risks. Data from the monthly CPI and Q1 GDP will guide, amid household debt sensitivities.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sustained restrictive stance post-February anchors inflation return to target, upholding dual mandate with flexibility to new risks like further inflation upticks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markets price a March hold at 3.85%, with big four banks split: CBA, NAB, Westpac eye May hike to 4.10% if persistence continues, while others see limited upside unless acceleration. Upcoming monthly CPI pivotal for Q2 trajectory.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Policy vigilance counters inflation stickiness against household fragilities and global uncertainties, reaffirming adaptability under dual mandate.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Base case favors March hold with risks tilted hawkish for further hikes if data is hot; monthly indicators key to 2026 path.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 5 to 6 May 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from NZD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The NZD\/USD pair exhibited upward momentum in a bullish channel around 0.5902, driven by technical indicators and recent RBNZ stability, despite lingering pressures from global risk aversion and Middle East developments; no confirmed events or shifts were reported specifically for April 17.<br \/><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Reserve Bank of New Zealand&#8217;s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25% at its 8 April 2026 Monetary Policy Review, aligning with unanimous market consensus from Reuters polls and previews.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The MPC continues its data-dependent &#8220;wait-and-see&#8221; approach after February&#8217;s pause, balancing stimulus from prior 325 basis point cuts against inflation&#8217;s path back to the 2% target, with readiness for gradual normalization only if recovery strengthens or inflation exceeds forecasts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Headline CPI, last at 3.1%, is on track to re-enter the 1-3% band in Q2 2026 and hit 2% by mid-2027, aided by spare capacity, moderating wages, and softer food\/fuel prices; two-year business inflation expectations have ticked up slightly to 2.37%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Household spending and housing remain subdued amid cautious consumption, low net migration, and labor market softness, though easing retail rates support budgets; high-frequency GDP indicators show steadying momentum in an early recovery phase.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Accommodative borrowing costs from the low OCR are boosting mortgage approvals and sentiment, but business credit growth lags due to uneven confidence; overall stimulus persists below the 3% neutral rate.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Risks are balanced, with a favorable global environment\u2014including stronger dairy\/meat exports and a softer NZ dollar\u2014offsetting oil shocks and prior China\/US trade worries; vigilance remains on second-round inflation effects.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Forecasts point to potential OCR hikes starting late 2026 (e.g., December) or early 2027 to 2.50% by year-end if activity\/inflation firms, but policy stays supportive if recovery unfolds gradually as expected.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 27 May 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Medium Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from JPY today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>The Japanese Yen (JPY) saw limited movement amid thin trading volumes influenced by the Good Friday holiday hangover and anticipation for the Bank of Japan&#8217;s (BoJ) policy meeting on April 28. USD\/JPY hovered around 159.60 during Asian hours, stabilizing after recent gains but facing downward pressure from Tokyo&#8217;s verbal intervention warnings and BoJ officials like Koji Nakamura highlighting oil price risks to growth and inflation outlook.<br \/><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan meets on 18\u201319 April 2026, with markets anticipating the short-term policy rate to remain at 0.75%, as the bank continues evaluating the December 2025 and prior hikes&#8217; effects amid data-dependent normalization.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The BOJ will target the uncollateralized overnight call rate around 0.75% and indicate future hikes hinge on impacts to lending, financing, and activity, with Governor Ueda signaling scrutiny of data for potential moves in April or later meetings.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>JGB tapering advances per plan, cutting outright purchases by \u00a5400 billion quarterly through Q1 2026 and slowing to \u00a5200 billion from April onward, targeting roughly \u00a52-3 trillion monthly by mid-2026, adjustable for market stability<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Japan\u2019s economy maintains moderate growth into Q1 2026, building on the Q4 2025 rebound via exports and fiscal measures, though manufacturing sentiment holds soft amid overseas demand weakness and yen pressures.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Core CPI (ex-fresh food) likely stays near 2.3-2.5% y\/y in early 2026. Tokyo prints off prior highs but above 2%, while core-core hovers around 2.6%, reflecting sustained but easing inflationary forces.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Input costs ease further from import peaks, yet services inflation, 5% wage targets in shunto talks, and anchored expectations above 2% support price persistence, with upside risks from yen and geopolitics.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Near-term real GDP may ease below trend due to tightening and external shocks like Iran tensions, but negative real rates, wage gains, and stimulus should underpin consumption and capex rebound.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Medium-term, overseas recovery, labor shortages, and productivity lifts are set to fuel wages and core inflation near\/above 2%, enabling gradual hikes toward 1% if conditions align.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 27 to 28 April 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Medium Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices stabilize in the $90-$100 range after a turbulent week marked by a 12% WTI drop from $117 highs, fueled by unwinding geopolitical bets on US-Iran conflict and Hormuz disruptions that slashed 13 million b\/d flows. Bearish technicals signal potential breaks below $86.80 support, tempered by fragile truce talks and OPEC+ quota tweaks, keeping traders cautious amid volatility.<br \/><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Strong Bullish<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IC Markets &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 17 April 2026 What [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":79410,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215,339],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-79754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis","category-recent-posts"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79754","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79754"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79754\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":79755,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79754\/revisions\/79755"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79410"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79754"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79754"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79754"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}