{"id":82159,"date":"2026-07-15T17:05:41","date_gmt":"2026-07-15T07:05:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/?p=82159"},"modified":"2026-07-15T17:05:45","modified_gmt":"2026-07-15T07:05:45","slug":"ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-15-july-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-15-july-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets &#8211; Europe Fundamental Forecast | 15 July 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>IC Markets &#8211; Europe Fundamental Forecast | 15 July 2026<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What happened in the Asia session?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>A combination of weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data and the continued global reaction to softer U.S. inflation figures. China reported Q2 GDP growth of 4.3%, below market expectations, highlighting slowing domestic demand despite resilient exports and modest improvements in retail sales. The disappointing GDP release weighed on sentiment toward China-sensitive assets early in the session, although broader Asian equities remained supported by optimism that easing U.S. inflation could reduce the likelihood of an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike<br \/><br \/><strong>What does it mean for the Europe &amp; US sessions?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><br \/>Financial markets are being driven by a combination of softer U.S. inflation data, central bank expectations, geopolitical developments, and several high-impact economic releases still to come. The U.S. dollar remains under pressure after June CPI came in weaker than expected, reducing expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike and boosting risk sentiment across equities and higher-yielding currencies. However, traders remain cautious as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions continue to support crude oil prices, keeping inflation risks alive despite the softer CPI reading.<br \/>\u200b<br \/><strong>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Core PPI m\/m (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/>PPI m\/m (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/>Fed Chairman Warsh Testifies (2:00 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/><strong>What can we expect from DXY today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. dollar is trading weaker on Wednesday, after June&#8217;s U.S. inflation data came in softer than expected, reducing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its upcoming July meeting. The latest CPI report showed annual inflation easing to 3.5%, while monthly inflation unexpectedly declined, largely due to lower energy prices. Following the data, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and the Dollar Index (DXY) retreated from its recent two-week high as traders sharply reduced the probability of a near-term Fed rate hike.<br \/><br \/><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%\u20133.75% at its June 16\u201317, 2026, meeting, marking another pause in the policy cycle. Under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, policymakers signaled a more cautious and hawkish stance as inflation remains above target despite moderating energy prices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee remains committed to achieving maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2% objective. Labor market conditions have remained relatively stable, with job gains continuing at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate projected to remain near 4.4% through 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation continues to be the primary concern for policymakers. Headline inflation remains elevated, supported by earlier energy-related price pressures and persistent services inflation. The June projections showed higher inflation forecasts than previously expected, leading several officials to favor keeping policy restrictive for longer.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic activity continues to expand at a moderate pace. Productivity growth, capital investment, and AI-related spending remain supportive of growth, while consumer spending and housing activity show signs of slowing compared with late 2025 and early 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) revealed a more divided Committee. Nine officials projected at least one rate hike during 2026, while others expected rates to remain unchanged or eventually decline. The median outlook shifted toward a higher-for-longer policy path compared with earlier projections.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Committee emphasized a data-dependent approach and noted that future decisions will depend on incoming data on inflation, employment, and economic growth. Officials acknowledged that geopolitical developments and energy markets remain important upside risks to inflation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The FOMC continues its balance sheet normalization program, maintaining Treasury runoff caps at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) runoff caps at $35 billion per month, while ensuring ample reserves remain in the banking system.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is scheduled for 28 to 29\u00a0 July 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gold (XAU)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Core PPI m\/m (12:30 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>PPI m\/m (12:30 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fed Chairman Warsh Testifies (2:00 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from Gold today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Gold prices are trading slightly lower after a strong rally in the previous session. The decline comes as a sharp rise in crude oil prices, fueled by escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and concerns over potential supply disruptions, has reignited inflation fears and pushed Treasury yields higher, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold. While softer-than-expected U.S. June inflation data initially boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve could slow the pace of policy tightening, investors are now reassessing the outlook as higher energy prices could keep inflation elevated for longer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias&nbsp; &nbsp; <\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Euro (EUR)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from EUR toda<\/strong>y?<br \/><br \/>The euro is in focus today as markets continue to assess the European Central Bank&#8217;s policy outlook following last month&#8217;s interest rate increase, while also digesting new developments surrounding the ECB&#8217;s digital euro initiative. The ECB announced that it has selected 36 banks, payment providers, and fintech firms to participate in a large-scale digital euro pilot scheduled to begin in 2027, marking one of the project&#8217;s biggest milestones to date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Governing Council is expected to maintain the three key rates unchanged at their June levels into July, with the main refinancing rate around 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. Policy remains on a meeting\u2011by\u2011meeting, data\u2011dependent footing.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Real GDP growth is expected to be modest: around 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028. Quarterly momentum implies roughly 0.2\u20130.3% q\/q growth in Q2 2026, consistent with resilience seen late\u20112025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Balance\u2011sheet normalization continues smoothly. APP and PEPP wind\u2011downs are effectively completed; the Eurosystem is allowing remaining longer\u2011dated holdings to run off. No material liquidity shortages are expected; the Governing Council will monitor transmission and market functioning closely.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Upside risks: stronger\u2011than\u2011expected services inflation persistence, renewed energy or commodity price shocks, and tighter global financial conditions that transmit unevenly.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The ECB is likely to keep policy rates on hold while emphasizing data dependence: future moves will be guided by incoming HICP prints, wage dynamics, and indicators of monetary transmission (credit, deposit flows, and market functioning).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>With rates expected to be on hold and inflation slightly above target for 2026, the EUR may trade with two\u2011way volatility; upside for the EUR if euro\u2011area data surprise to the upside or if US data weaken relative to the euro\u2011area, but limited unilateral appreciation given symmetric policy risks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Curve pricing should reflect a prolonged period of unchanged rates with modest probability of hikes if upside inflation surprises continue; front-end stays anchored, while longer\u2011dated yields respond to inflation\u2011expectation movements and global risk sentiment.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u200bThe next meeting is on 22 to 23 July 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Swiss Franc (CHF)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from CHF today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><br \/>The Swiss franc remained relatively stable, with market attention focused on the Swiss National Bank&#8217;s (SNB) cautious policy stance and the broader global risk environment. Recent commentary suggests the SNB is comfortable keeping its policy rate at 0.00% while maintaining a readiness to intervene in foreign exchange markets if excessive franc appreciation threatens Switzerland&#8217;s inflation outlook or export competitiveness. At the same time, easing geopolitical tensions have reduced safe-haven demand for the franc, contributing to modest weakness against the U.S. dollar over recent weeks, although the currency continues to be supported by Switzerland&#8217;s strong fiscal position and low inflation.<br \/><br \/><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>At its monetary policy assessment on 18 June 2026, the Swiss National Bank left the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0.00%, in line with market expectations. Policymakers maintained that the current policy setting remains appropriate given low inflation and ongoing global economic uncertainty.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation remains exceptionally subdued in Switzerland. Recent data show consumer price growth staying comfortably within the SNB&#8217;s price stability range, with headline inflation around 0.6% year-on-year in May 2026, while underlying inflation pressures remain limited despite higher global energy prices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The SNB continues to view medium-term inflation pressures as largely unchanged. While energy prices linked to Middle East tensions have temporarily lifted near-term inflation expectations, the stronger Swiss franc has helped offset imported inflation, supporting the central bank&#8217;s decision to maintain rates at current levels.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>External risks remain elevated. Policymakers highlighted ongoing geopolitical tensions, trade uncertainties, and slower global growth prospects, particularly in key export markets such as the Eurozone and the United States. These factors continue to warrant a cautious policy approach.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Swiss economic activity remains resilient but modest. GDP growth is expected to remain around 1\u20131.5% in 2026, supported by domestic demand, although manufacturing and export-oriented sectors continue to face challenges from a strong franc and softer foreign demand.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The SNB reiterated its readiness to act if necessary. The Governing Board emphasized that it remains willing to intervene in foreign exchange markets to counter excessive Swiss franc appreciation and stands prepared to adjust policy should inflation or economic conditions deviate materially from expectations.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/>The next meeting is on 24 September 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Medium Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Pound (GBP)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from GBP today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>The British pound is trading with a firmer tone supported by a weaker U.S. dollar after softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data reduced expectations of further aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. Sterling has remained resilient despite heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices, with GBP\/USD holding above the 1.34 level while the pound also remains strong on a trade-weighted basis. Investors are closely monitoring comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who acknowledged that renewed Gulf tensions have increased economic uncertainty but said the direct impact on UK inflation has so far been limited.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Central Bank Notes:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Bank of England\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 17\u201318 June 2026 and voted 7\u20132 to maintain the Bank Rate at 3.75%. Two members, Megan Greene and Chief Economist Huw Pill, voted for a 25-basis-point increase to 4.00%, citing concerns about inflation expectations and the risk of persistent price pressures. The majority favored keeping policy unchanged while assessing the evolving impact of recent energy-market developments.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Quantitative tightening (QT) continues as planned, with the Bank maintaining its balance-sheet reduction strategy through gilt runoff and sales. The MPC considers QT an important part of policy normalization while preserving sufficient liquidity in financial markets.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation remains above target despite some easing in energy prices. The Bank expects CPI inflation to remain around or above 3% during the second half of 2026, compared with the 2% target. While recent declines in oil and gas prices have reduced the near-term inflation outlook, policymakers remain concerned about potential second-round effects through wages and services inflation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>UK economic growth remains subdued. The MPC noted signs of weakening demand, falling vacancies, and a softer labor market, although recent wage growth data came in slightly stronger than expected. The Committee expects economic activity to remain modest as higher borrowing costs and uncertainty continue to weigh on business investment and consumer spending.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Global risks remain elevated, particularly due to developments in the Middle East and their potential effects on energy markets, trade flows, and financial conditions. Although tensions have eased somewhat following diplomatic progress, policymakers continue to monitor commodity-price volatility and its implications for UK inflation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. The MPC highlighted concerns that higher inflation expectations, resilient wage growth, and renewed energy-price shocks could require a more restrictive policy stance. However, downside risks from weaker growth and increasing economic slack offset this influence.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The MPC continues to emphasize a data-dependent and restrictive policy stance, with no commitment to either rate cuts or hikes in the near term. Governor Andrew Bailey stated that policymakers will remain vigilant and stand ready to respond if inflation proves more persistent than expected. The presence of two votes for a rate increase demonstrates that the Committee remains alert to upside inflation risks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 30 July 2026.<br \/><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Medium Bullish<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>The Canadian Dollar (CAD)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>BOC Monetary Policy Report (1:45 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BOC Rate Statement (1:45 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overnight Rate (1:45 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BOC Press Conference (2:45 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What can we expect from CAD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Canadian dollar (CAD) is trading with a firmer tone on Wednesday, 15 July 2026, supported by a combination of higher crude oil prices and broad U.S. dollar weakness following softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data. The loonie has strengthened to around a four-week high against the U.S. dollar as traders reduced expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike, while rising oil prices driven by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have provided additional support to Canada&#8217;s commodity-linked currency.<br \/>\u200b<br \/>Central Bank Notes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>At its 10 June 2026 meeting, the Governing Council maintained the overnight rate target at 2.25%, continuing the policy pause begun earlier in the year. The decision matched market expectations and reflected the Committee\u2019s assessment that the current stance remains appropriately restrictive to secure 2% inflation over the policy horizon.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Bank noted persistent global headwinds: geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and renewed U.S. trade friction continue to weigh on sentiment and supply chains. These risks are asymmetric and could slow foreign demand or push commodity price volatility higher.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Real GDP growth is estimated to have continued into Q2 at roughly a 2.0\u20132.3% annualized pace, broadly consistent with the Bank\u2019s April projection of sustained momentum. Strength remained concentrated in resource shipments and exports, supported by robust global energy demand, while business investment showed only tentative improvement.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The labour market remains tight but is showing early signs of rebalancing: employment growth continued, and the unemployment rate stayed near recent lows, but wage growth has moderated from its peak. Participation edged up modestly in some regions, consistent with slower wage pressure ahead.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u200bHeadline CPI remained close to 2.0% year-over-year in April\u2013May prints, within the inflation target band. Core indicators\u2014CPI-trim, CPI-median, and a trimmed mean\u2014tracked around 2.3\u20132.6%, showing modest further easing compared with earlier in the year.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Manufacturing PMI remained in expansionary territory into May, supported by export orders and healthy energy-sector activity. Firms reported steady demand for intermediate goods, though capex intentions remain cautious.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Credit growth continued at a moderate pace. Bank lending spreads and deposit dynamics showed limited pass-through from global tightening episodes. Mortgage rates remain somewhat elevated but stable, underpinning the observed moderation in housing activity.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 16 July 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Medium Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Oil<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><em><br \/><\/em><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)<br \/><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>What can we expect from Oil today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices moved higher on Wednesday, 15 July 2026, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remained the dominant driver of the crude market. Brent crude traded above $85 per barrel, while WTI approached $80 per barrel, after renewed military exchanges between the United States and Iran intensified concerns over potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments. Market sentiment remains risk-sensitive, with traders closely monitoring any further escalation that could threaten regional energy infrastructure or shipping lanes, while some analysts warn that sustained disruptions could push crude prices toward $100 per barrel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Weak Bearish<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IC Markets &#8211; Europe Fundamental Forecast | 15 July 2026 What [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":79417,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215,339],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-82159","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis","category-recent-posts"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82159","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82159"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82159\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":82161,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82159\/revisions\/82161"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79417"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82159"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82159"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82159"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}