{"id":83839,"date":"2026-09-16T13:25:43","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T03:25:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/?p=83839"},"modified":"2026-09-16T13:25:44","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T03:25:44","slug":"trade-gold-on-the-fomc-interest-rate-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/trade-gold-on-the-fomc-interest-rate-update\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade Gold on the FOMC Interest Rate Update"},"content":{"rendered":"\n



Traders are preparing for what is one of the most highly anticipated conclusions to a Federal Open Markets Committee meeting in recent years towards the end of Wednesday\u2019s US trading session. Expectations for the interest rate announcement have been extremely volatile, with the odds of a 25-basis point rate hike jumping from just a 33% chance a month ago to a near 90% chance now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market initially turned more dovish for the meeting after July\u2019s Non-Farm Payroll data came in well below expectations and a peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and decrease inflationary concerns looking a strong possibility. However, in the last few weeks, we have seen the conflict in the Middle East escalate and the market turn much more hawkish on the back of stronger inflation and jobs data prints as well as comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in his keynote speech at Jackson Hole indicating that the Fed has work to on inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets are expected to be extremely volatile around the event with the dollar likely to move strongly. With the market now fully expecting a 25-basis point hike the move is likely to come from any guidance from the dot plot, statement, and press conference. A hawkish hike, indicating more hikes to come both this year and next should see the dollar move higher, while more of a \u2018wait and see\u2019 dovish hike should see pressure on the greenback. Whilst the outside chance of a \u2018hold\u2019 would really set the cat amongst the pigeons with the initial reaction likely to be a hit to the dollar which then could be strongly reversed if the market then thinks that inflation may get out of control and yields rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is looking nicely set up from a technical perspective to trade on the event sitting in the middle of recent ranges giving it scope to test either side on the update. A hawkish hike should see XAUUSD fall to test long term support on the Daily chart around the $4,100 level, while a dovish hike could see resistance levels near $4,550 challenged in short order. A surprise hold should see a huge spike in volatility and both sides of the recent range could come into focus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resistance 2: $4,696.18 \u2013 August High<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resistance 1: $4,604.72 \u2013 Trendline Resistance<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Support 1: $4,103.06 \u2013 Trendline Support<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Support 2: $3,942.99 \u2013 2026 Low<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Traders are preparing for what is one of the most highly […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":83840,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[462],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-83839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-news"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83839","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=83839"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83839\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":83842,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83839\/revisions\/83842"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/83840"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=83839"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=83839"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=83839"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}