{"id":83847,"date":"2026-09-16T16:41:48","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T06:41:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/?p=83847"},"modified":"2026-09-16T16:41:50","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T06:41:50","slug":"general-market-analysis-16-09-26","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/general-market-analysis-16-09-26\/","title":{"rendered":"General Market Analysis \u2013 16\/09\/26"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

US Stocks Fall Again Ahead of the Fed \u2013 Nasdaq down 0.8%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US equity markets declined further in trading yesterday as investors continued to assess the economic implications of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Rising oil prices and higher Treasury yields weighed on risk sentiment, while the US dollar strengthened ahead of today\u2019s highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All three major US indices finished the session lower. The Dow Jones declined 0.63% to close at 52,093, while the S&P 500 fell 0.45% to 7,585. Technology stocks experienced slightly heavier selling, with the Nasdaq dropping 0.78% to finish at 25,981.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Treasury yields continued to move higher as markets prepared for the Federal Reserve meeting. The policy-sensitive 2-year yield increased 0.8 basis points to 4.666%, while the benchmark 10-year yield closed up 1.5 basis points to 5.002%, moving above the key 5% level and reaching its highest point since 2007 earlier in the day. Expectations for a 25-basis-point rate increase have strengthened considerably, with markets now pricing the probability of a hike at approximately 93%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US dollar also extended its recent gains ahead of the decision, with the USD Index rising 0.18% to 99.65.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil prices recorded another significant advance as concerns over global energy supplies intensified. Saudi Arabia announced that some shipments to European clients had been cancelled, adding to existing supply concerns generated by the continuing conflict in the Middle East. Brent crude rose 2.60% to $108.43 a barrel, while WTI gained 4.15% to $105.59.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold experienced another volatile session as geopolitical concerns provided support, while the stronger US dollar and higher Treasury yields limited demand for the precious metal. Gold ultimately closed 0.11% lower at $4,293.01 an ounce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed to Dominate Markets Later in the Day<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the most highly anticipated FOMC meetings will conclude today, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh likely to announce a 25-basis-point interest rate increase at its conclusion. Expectations for a hike have strengthened considerably over the past few weeks, with markets now pricing the probability of a hike at approximately 93%, up from 33% a month ago and 59% a week ago. With the hike all but locked in, attention is likely to focus on the accompanying policy statement, updated economic projections and guidance from the Fed Chair regarding the potential path for interest rates over the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A hawkish hike, indicating more hikes to come both this year and next, should see the dollar move higher, while more of a \u2018wait and see\u2019 dovish hike should see pressure on the greenback. Whilst the outside chance of a \u2018hold\u2019 would really set the cat amongst the pigeons, with the initial reaction likely to be a hit to the dollar, which then could be strongly reversed if the market then thinks that inflation may get out of control and yields rally strongly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whatever the outcome of the update, traders are expecting volatility to pick up significantly around and after the event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Macroeconomic Calendar Heats Up Today for Traders<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The macroeconomic calendar really kicks into action today for traders, with the first, and without a doubt most influential, central bank update of the week due late in the day. The Federal Reserve Bank will dominate market attention today, with the FOMC interest rate decision due towards the end of the New York session, followed by the press conference half an hour later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ahead of the Fed, however, traders will also monitor some key data updates, with UK CPI (exp. +3.1% y\/y) and PPI (exp. +0.6% m\/m) figures released during the European session and US Retail Sales (exp. +0.8% m\/m, Core +0.6% m\/m) data due shortly after the New York open. Geopolitical developments will also remain an important driver of sentiment, particularly given the continued upward pressure on global oil prices, and could keep markets volatile right up until the Fed announcement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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