{"id":84096,"date":"2026-09-25T16:24:28","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T06:24:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/?p=84096"},"modified":"2026-09-25T16:24:31","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T06:24:31","slug":"general-market-analysis-25-09-26","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/general-market-analysis-25-09-26\/","title":{"rendered":"General Market Analysis \u2013 25\/09\/26"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Stocks Resilient as Yields Drive Higher \u2013 Dow down 0.3%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US equity markets remained relatively resilient in trading yesterday despite another significant move higher in Treasury yields, as investors continued to assess the outlook for US monetary policy and developments in the Middle East. The Dow Jones declined 0.31% to close at 51,349, while the S&P 500 slipped just 0.02% to 7,704. The Nasdaq finished effectively unchanged, edging 0.01% higher to 26,939.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Treasury yields continued to rise across the curve following further comments from Federal Reserve officials indicating that additional interest rate hikes may be required to bring inflation under control. The policy-sensitive 2-year yield increased 2.7 basis points to 4.924%, while the benchmark 10-year yield climbed a more substantial 8.4 basis points to 5.198%. Longer-dated yields also came under pressure, with the 30-year Treasury yield touching levels not seen since 2004.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The continued rise in US yields provided further support for the dollar, which strengthened against the major currencies. The US Dollar Index gained 0.14% on the session to close at 101.26 as markets continued to adjust expectations for the Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rate outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Energy markets experienced another sharp increase in volatility as geopolitical concerns returned to the forefront. Oil prices jumped to one-week highs as continued Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia renewed concerns over potential supply disruptions. Brent crude surged 3.79% to close at $106.99 per barrel, while WTI gained 2.45% to finish at $94.61.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold experienced another volatile session but ultimately finished modestly lower, with the stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields weighing on the precious metal. Gold declined 0.21% to close at $4,277.98 per ounce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dollar Driving to Annual Highs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US dollar has seen a strong rally in recent weeks, pushing back towards annual highs as a combination of rising Treasury yields, a more hawkish Federal Reserve, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty increases demand for the greenback. The DXY has punched up 2.84% from its September low at 98.59 and is now sitting just below key technical resistance at 101.49 and the annual high of 101.80.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The shift in US interest-rate expectations has been the key driver. The Federal Reserve\u2019s 25-basis-point rate hike last week was accompanied by a clear signal that further tightening remains likely, with policymakers indicating at least one additional increase could be delivered before year-end, and that message has been reinforced over recent days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Treasury yields have responded accordingly. The benchmark 10-year yield has moved above 5% in recent sessions and now sits close to 5.2%, while yields further along the curve have climbed to multi-year highs as investors respond to persistent inflation concerns and increasingly hawkish comments from Fed officials. Higher US yields have increased the dollar\u2019s relative attraction, encouraging capital flows into dollar-denominated assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the dollar continues to benefit from its traditional safe-haven status. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding energy supplies have kept geopolitical risk elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quiet Calendar Day to Close the Trading Week<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The economic calendar is relatively quiet today as markets move towards the end of the trading week. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak during the European session, while the US session will feature Durable Goods Orders (exp -0.3% m\/m, Core +0.6% m\/m) and revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (exp 47.4) and Inflation Expectations (last 4.6%) data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, with geopolitical tensions remaining elevated, further developments in the Middle East could once again prove to be the primary driver of market sentiment and volatility, and we could be in for another lively end to the trading week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Stocks Resilient as Yields Drive Higher \u2013 Dow down 0.3% US […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":84097,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[463],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-84096","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general-market-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t