{"id":85062,"date":"2026-10-29T17:55:15","date_gmt":"2026-10-29T06:55:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/?p=85062"},"modified":"2026-10-29T17:55:18","modified_gmt":"2026-10-29T06:55:18","slug":"ic-markets-asia-fundamental-forecast-29-october-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/ic-markets-asia-fundamental-forecast-29-october-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"IC Markets &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 29 October 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>IC Markets &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 29 October 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What happened in the U.S. session?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>The biggest driver during the U.S. session overnight was the Federal Reserve&#8217;s decision to keep interest rates unchanged while signaling that inflation remains a concern and further tightening is possible. U.S. stocks rose modestly, the dollar weakened slightly, and Treasury yields moved unevenly. Meanwhile, oil prices climbed on renewed Middle East supply concerns, adding to inflation risks and weighing on gold.<br \/><br \/><strong>What does it mean for the Asia Session?<\/strong><br \/><br \/>Asian traders should approach Thursday with a focus on central-bank policy expectations, particularly the Fed&#8217;s inflation concerns and the BOJ&#8217;s upcoming decision. Australia&#8217;s stronger inflation backdrop may continue to support the AUD, while the yen remains sensitive to Japanese economic data and interest-rate expectations. Gold will likely respond to movements in the dollar and US yields, while oil remains vulnerable to geopolitical supply shocks.<br \/>\u200b<br \/><strong>The Dollar Index (DXY)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Advance GDP q\/q (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/>Core PCE Price Index m\/m (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/>Advance GDP Price Index q\/q (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/>Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/><strong>What can we expect from the DXY today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>The US dollar is steady after weakening following the Fed&#8217;s decision to hold interest rates at 3.75%\u20134.00%. Although inflation remains elevated and the Fed has not ruled out another rate hike, its lack of clear guidance in December has reduced some immediate bullish momentum. Today&#8217;s key driver is the US GDP and PCE inflation release. Stronger-than-expected figures could lift the dollar by increasing rate-hike expectations, while softer data could weaken it.<br \/><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept interest rates unchanged at 3.75%\u20134.00% at its October 27\u201328 meeting. The decision was approved by a 10\u20132 vote, following September\u2019s 25-basis-point rate hike. Two members preferred another 25-basis-point increase.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The labor market remains relatively stable. The Fed noted that job gains have kept pace with workforce growth and that the unemployment rate has changed little. Employment conditions remain an important factor in future policy decisions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation remains above the Fed\u2019s 2% target. Policymakers want more economic data to assess whether inflation is moving sustainably towards the target. Persistent inflation could increase the possibility of further rate hikes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Fed upgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy from a solid pace of growth to a strong pace. Domestic spending remains resilient, productivity growth is strong, and business investment remains robust. However, geopolitical developments continue to create uncertainty.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Fed has kept the door open to further rate hikes if inflation remains elevated. The latest decision suggests policymakers want more evidence before making their next move. Markets are watching closely for signals about a possible rate increase in December.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Chair Kevin Warsh continues to emphasize the importance of bringing inflation back to the 2% target. The October decision reflects a cautious approach, with the Fed waiting for more information before adjusting interest rates again.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Fed\u2019s decision could influence the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, gold, and other financial markets. Expectations of higher interest rates may support the dollar and pressure gold, while signs of easing inflation could weaken the dollar and support gold prices. Market reactions will depend on incoming economic data and expectations for future policy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is scheduled for 8 to 9 December 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Medium Bullish&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Gold (XAU)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>Advance GDP q\/q (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/>Core PCE Price Index m\/m (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/>Advance GDP Price Index q\/q (12:30 pm GMT)<br \/><br \/>Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What can we expect from the Gold today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gold is facing short-term bearish pressure on Thursday, 29 October 2026, after falling to around $4,040 per ounce in early trading. The Federal Reserve&#8217;s decision to hold interest rates steady has not reassured the market because two officials favored a rate increase and inflation remains elevated. A firm U.S. dollar, higher Treasury yields, and expensive oil are adding to uncertainty.<br \/><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><br \/>Strongly Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What can we expect from the AUD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Australian dollar has a cautiously bullish fundamental outlook following hotter-than-expected Australian inflation, which has strengthened expectations of another RBA rate hike. AUD\/USD recently reached a five-week high, although US dollar strength has limited further gains. Today, traders should watch Australia&#8217;s import and export price data, movements in the US dollar, Chinese commodity demand, and positioning ahead of the November 3 RBA decision.<br \/><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The RBA raised the cash rate by 25bps to 4.60% on 29 September, its fourth hike of 2026 and the highest cash rate since 2011. The RBA said higher rates are needed to bring inflation back to target, while further tightening remains possible if inflationary pressures persist.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation has become a major concern for the RBA. August CPI rose to 4.0% year-on-year, up sharply from 3.5% in July, while trimmed-mean inflation remained at 3.6%. Higher housing and fuel costs were important contributors, keeping underlying inflation well above the RBA\u2019s 2\u20133% target.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The labor market is cooling but remains relatively resilient. Australia&#8217;s unemployment rate increased to 4.6% in August, while employment increased by around 39,500. The rise in unemployment provides some evidence that higher rates are slowing the economy, although employment growth remains positive.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Wage growth remains an important inflation risk. The Wage Price Index increased 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and 3.2% year-on-year in Q2 2026. Moderating wage growth would help ease domestic inflation pressures, but wages remain above levels that would be consistent with very low inflation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Household demand is showing signs of slowing under higher interest rates. Household spending was unchanged in August after strong increases in June and July, although spending was still 6.8% higher than a year earlier. Housing activity also weakened, with total dwelling approvals falling 6.1% in August.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Economic growth remains positive but subdued. Australia&#8217;s GDP increased 0.4% in Q2 2026 and 2.1% year-on-year, suggesting the economy is still expanding but not particularly strongly. The RBA will need to balance persistent inflation against the growing impact of restrictive monetary policy on households and housing.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Global energy prices are becoming an additional inflation risk. Middle East tensions and disruptions to energy supplies have pushed oil prices higher, while China&#8217;s suspension of fuel exports in October has added pressure to Asian fuel markets. Higher energy costs could keep Australian inflation elevated and make it harder for the RBA to ease policy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 2-3 November 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Medium Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>No major news event<br \/><br \/><strong>What can we expect from the NZD today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure on Thursday, following the RBNZ&#8217;s surprise decision to hold its cash rate at 2.75%. Inflation eased to 3.7%, but remains above the central bank&#8217;s target, while rising energy costs could push it higher again. Governor Anna Breman&#8217;s comments that a December rate hike is likely provide some support, although uncertainty over the timing of further tightening remains a concern.<br \/><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.75% on 28 October 2026. The decision was close, with four members voting to hold rates and three supporting a hike. The bank chose to assess incoming economic data before making further changes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Annual inflation eased from 4.1% in June to 3.7% in September 2026, but it remains above the RBNZ\u2019s 1\u20133% target range. The bank expects inflation could rise to 4.4% by the end of the year, partly due to higher fuel costs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ongoing disruptions in global energy markets are increasing fuel-price uncertainty. Higher energy costs could push up transportation and production expenses, keeping inflation elevated. A weaker New Zealand dollar is also adding to near-term inflation pressures.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Although the RBNZ held rates in October, the close vote suggests further increases remain possible. Policymakers will monitor inflation, domestic price pressures, and economic activity before deciding whether additional tightening is necessary. The next decision will depend on incoming data rather than a fixed plan.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>New Zealand\u2019s economy continues to recover, but growth remains uneven. Strong export performance and resilient demand from trading partners are supporting economic activity, while weak household spending and housing-market conditions continue to limit the recovery.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Households remain under pressure from the cost of living and uncertain economic conditions. Weak spending and subdued housing activity could slow the recovery, making it important for the RBNZ to balance inflation control with economic growth.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>New Zealand\u2019s labor market remains weak, with unemployment at 5.6% in the June 2026 quarter. Subdued wage growth is helping limit some inflation pressures, but a weak job market remains a concern for policymakers. The next unemployment report is scheduled for 4 November 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The RBNZ\u2019s next monetary policy decision is scheduled for 9 December 2026. Traders will closely monitor inflation, employment data, fuel prices, and the bank\u2019s guidance for clues about whether interest rates could rise further<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 9 December 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Strong Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Japanese Yen (JPY)<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tokyo Core CPI y\/y (11:30 pm GMT)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What can we expect from the JPY today?<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>The Japanese yen remains under pressure, with USD\/JPY around the 157\u2013158 area in the latest reported trading, while Japanese officials are warning that they may intervene to prevent excessive weakness. Rising service-sector inflation and expectations of future BOJ rate hikes provide potential support for the currency, but relatively low Japanese interest rates and concerns about government spending continue to weigh on it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br \/><strong>Central Bank Notes:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The BOJ raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% at its September 17\u201318 meeting, the highest level in 31 years. The decision passed 7\u20132.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The BOJ said underlying inflation remains firm and is increasingly consistent with its 2% price-stability target, supported by wage growth and services prices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Further rate hikes remain possible, but the BOJ will continue to assess wage growth, inflation, economic activity, and financial-market conditions before making additional adjustments.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bank continues its gradual reduction of Japanese government bond purchases while retaining flexibility to respond if market volatility becomes excessive.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Japan&#8217;s economy continues to expand moderately, supported by domestic demand and business investment, although global trade uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and higher energy costs remain important risks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Yen weakness remains a key concern, as depreciation can increase imported inflation. The BOJ is closely monitoring exchange-rate movements and their impact on prices and financial conditions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled that the September hike reflects growing confidence that inflation is becoming more sustainable, while the two dissenting members preferred to wait before tightening further.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Looking ahead: The BOJ remains on a gradual normalization path. Future hikes will depend mainly on inflation, wages, domestic demand, and financial conditions rather than a fixed timetable.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The next meeting is on 29 to 30 October 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Weak Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key news events today<\/strong><br \/><br \/>No major news event<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What can we expect from the Oil today?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oil remains supported by Middle East supply risks and falling U.S. crude inventories, with Brent recently settling near $115.32 and WTI near $102.78 per barrel. However, hopes for renewed U.S.\u2013Iran peace talks are creating downside risk, while the upcoming OPEC+ meeting could influence expectations for future supply.<br \/><br \/><strong>Next 24 Hours Bias<\/strong><strong><br \/><\/strong>Strongly Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IC Markets &#8211; Asia Fundamental Forecast | 29 October 2026 What [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":79410,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[196,215,339],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-85062","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fundamental-analysis","category-market-analysis","category-recent-posts"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85062","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=85062"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85062\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":85063,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/85062\/revisions\/85063"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79410"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=85062"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=85062"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.icmarkets.com.au\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=85062"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}