US Stocks Drive Higher on First Monday of 2026 – Dow up 1.2%
US equity markets kicked off the first full trading week of the new year on a strong note, led by the Dow Jones, which surged 1.23% to close at a fresh record high of 48,977, as investors continued to digest developments surrounding the situation in Venezuela. The broader market also advanced, with the S&P 500 adding 0.64% to finish at 6,902, while the Nasdaq gained 0.69% to close at 23,395. In currency markets, the US dollar weakened against its major counterparts, with the dollar index slipping 0.10% to 98.32. US Treasury yields moved lower across the curve ahead of key labour market data due later in the week, with the 2-year yield falling 2.2 basis points to 3.451% and the 10-year easing 2.9 basis points to 4.161%. Commodities saw strong moves as geopolitical tensions drove safe-haven flows. Oil prices jumped sharply following the US strike on Venezuela, with Brent rising 1.79% to $61.84 a barrel and WTI climbing 1.85% to $58.38. Gold was the standout performer, surging 2.69% to trade at $4,449.15 an ounce as investors sought protection amid rising uncertainty.
Markets Kick off the New Year in the Same Form as 2025
US markets kicked off the first day of the first full trading week in very much the same vein as they traded for much of 2025. US equity markets pushed higher on investor confidence, while commodities also moved higher. Those reading reports of the moves would be forgiven—as they would have been for most of 2025—for being slightly confused, as many reports suggest that US stocks jumped on the positives from the US strike on Venezuela, while gold and oil moved higher on haven concerns due to the same strike. While markets do not always trade in line with each other, this disparity between investor confidence and concern has helped to drive both sectors to record levels in the past 12 months, and US indices and precious metals are all sitting near record levels. Only time will tell if this correlation continues into the new year, and traders need to trade what is before them in the market, but most participants agree that there will be plenty of volatility in the months ahead, especially if we start to see a return to more ‘normal’ trading conditions.
Quiet Calendar Start to a Busy Week
Looking ahead, it is a relatively quiet day on the macroeconomic calendar. There is little on the calendar in the Asian session, with traders expecting markets to start on the front foot after a good day on Wall Street. Germany’s preliminary CPI data will be watched during the European session, with the data coming out of separate states throughout the day, the market expecting an average 0.3% m/m increase. In the US session, attention will turn to comments from FOMC member Thomas Barkin ahead of the heavy jobs data releases later in the week. Despite the light data schedule, markets are expected to remain headline-driven, with traders keeping a close eye on geopolitical developments as the sessions progress.
