US Stocks Rally to Fresh Records – S&P up 0.6%
US equity markets advanced again yesterday, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching fresh record highs as Treasury yields eased and investors began to turn their attention toward the upcoming third-quarter earnings season. The Dow Jones gained 0.49% to close at 51,521, while the S&P 500 rose 0.58% to a record 7,818. The Nasdaq also reached a new closing high, advancing 0.45% to 27,599.
US Treasury yields moved lower across the curve, providing additional support for equity markets. The policy-sensitive 2-year yield declined 1.4 basis points to 4.798%, while the benchmark 10-year yield fell 2.4 basis points to 5.279%. The pullback in yields also weighed on the US dollar, with the Dollar Index declining 0.32% to close at 101.85.
Oil prices were relatively stable as traders continued to balance geopolitical and supply risks against indications that export volumes are increasing. Brent crude edged 0.26% higher to $100.58 per barrel, while WTI gained 0.40% to close at $89.80. Gold also recovered from recent support levels, benefiting from the softer US dollar and lower Treasury yields, with the precious metal rising 0.58% to $4,163.45.
Gold Trading at Pivotal Levels
Gold is approaching a potentially decisive point in the coming sessions, with the precious metal sitting on a major support zone after coming under sustained pressure from elevated US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar.
For most of 2026, the main drivers of gold have shifted away from its traditional safe-haven role. Despite continued geopolitical uncertainty, bullion has struggled to attract sustained haven demand. Instead, US yields and the dollar are increasingly controlling price action. Higher Treasury yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, while a stronger dollar adds another layer of pressure. Recent price action has reinforced that relationship, with gold under pressure as both yields and the dollar pushed higher.
The FOMC minutes today and subsequent US data could drive another significant adjustment in rate expectations, Treasury yields, and the dollar. If yields resume their move higher and the dollar strengthens, a break of support could trigger another sharp leg lower. Conversely, a meaningful retreat in yields and the dollar could see buyers return aggressively.
With gold sitting close to a major technical inflection point, initial support now just above $4,100 on the Daily chart, volatility could increase significantly from here. For traders, the message is relatively straightforward: watch the bond market and the dollar — they are likely to determine which way gold breaks next.
Fed Minutes in Focus for Traders Today
The economic calendar remains relatively quiet during the Asian session today, with Chinese markets closed for a Bank Holiday. Again, there is little of note scheduled in the London session; however, attention should increase during the US session, with crude oil inventory data (exp +1.9 mio) and the US 10-year Treasury auction updates due out earlier in the day.
The main event will come later in the session with the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes. With expectations for Federal Reserve policy having shifted significantly in recent sessions, investors will be looking closely at the minutes for further insight into policymakers’ views on inflation, the labour market, and the potential path for interest rates.
