US Stocks Flat After Fed Holds Rates – Dow up 0.17%
US equity markets ended the overnight session little changed after the Federal Reserve left interest rates on hold, a decision that was fully priced in by markets. The Dow Jones edged 0.02% higher to close at 49,015, while the S&P 500 slipped marginally, down 0.01% at 6,978. The Nasdaq slightly outperformed, adding 0.17% to finish at 23,857. US Treasury yields were quiet, with the 2-year yield slipping just 0.2 of a basis point to 3.571%, while the 10-year yield closed flat at 4.243%. The US dollar regained some ground following the previous session’s sharp sell-off, rising 0.13% to 96.34. Commodity markets once again stole the spotlight. Oil prices pushed to fresh multi-month highs as geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran continued to weigh on sentiment. Brent surged 1.69% to $68.71, while WTI climbed 1.31% to $63.21. Precious metals extended their extraordinary 2026 run, with gold exploding 4.5% higher to a fresh record close at $5,417.21. Silver also pushed higher and sits just under its record high.
Precious Metals Continue to Defy Markets
The rise and rise of gold continued in trading overnight, with the world’s favourite precious metal jumping another 4% in a day’s trading. Various theories are being presented by market commentators as to the speed and size of the moves of both gold and silver, with both having already outstripped most major banks’ estimated annual gains in the first trading month of the year. Gold has now notched up a ‘cheeky’ 25% gain since Jan 1, while silver has clocked up a staggering 64% rise. Various theories are being presented on a daily basis, from huge portfolio reallocation to dollar debasement and increased geopolitical concerns, all of which make some sense, but do not really justify the size and the speed of the moves. Some of the recent extended moves – for instance, silver’s 15% one-day jump from $102 to $117 – feel to experienced traders like huge stop-loss runs, where the transactors don’t really care where they buy their positions back, but just that they do. We may hear more about that in the coming days and weeks, but for now it is very difficult for traders to stand in the way of the relentless move, and so most are continuing to look for levels to buy.
Quiet Calendar Day Ahead for Traders
The macroeconomic calendar is relatively quiet in the upcoming session; however, traders remain on alert for further sharp moves given the heightened volatility seen throughout the week. The Asian session looks like having a rare quiet start to the day this week after the Fed predictably kept rates on hold and Wall Street closed close to flat. It’s a similar story for the London session today, with nothing of note scheduled; however, traders will be keeping a close eye on their news screens for updates on Iran especially. The New York session does see the usual weekly US Unemployment Claims (exp 206k) released, which could add some spice to the market, but again it will likely be geopolitical updates that spur any fresh moves.
