Global markets are still trading strongly in line with geopolitical developments in the Middle East at the moment, and although the ceasefire has led to some positive sentiment and lower oil prices, doubts about the longevity of this truce and whether we will see oil traffic pushing back to normal levels in the Strait of Hormuz still have markets nervously awaiting updates.
Talks between the US and Iran are ongoing in Pakistan and, so far, there has been no agreement on some of the major sticking points between the two sides. More talks are scheduled for Sunday, which could mean updates hitting the market at the open and during the Monday Asian session, which should guarantee volatility to kick off the week.
Traders are expecting geopolitical updates to continue to dominate sentiment as we progress through the week; however, there are some key data updates due out in the coming days, as well as a big meeting of central bank officials in Washington, DC, from midweek, which could contribute to market direction.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
It is a very quiet start to the week on the macroeconomic calendar; however, traders are again expecting plenty of volatility across the trading sessions as the market reacts to fresh updates from the Middle East on truce talks between the US and Iran.
It is a similar story on the calendar for Tuesday for the first two trading sessions of the day; however, the New York session will see the release of the only major US data for the week, with the PPI numbers due out early in the day. There are a raft of updates scheduled out of Washington, DC, as central bank officials gather for a few days. Key updates are due from the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey, the ECB’s Christine Lagarde, as well as a number of Fed members.
There is little again in terms of data out on Wednesday. The US Empire State Manufacturing data is due early in the New York session, and then we again hear from some major central bank figures, including the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey again, the Swiss National Bank’s Martin Schlegel, and the RBNZ’s Anna Breman.
Australian markets will be in focus early in the Asian session on Thursday, with key employment data due out. There is also a big data drop out of China featuring Industrial Production and GDP data later in the session. UK markets will be in focus early in the European session, with key GDP data due out alongside other economic indicators, while the New York day has the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Weekly Unemployment Claims data scheduled.
It’s another very quiet day on the data calendar on Friday, with little for traders in the way of fresh updates. Fed members Daly, Barkin, and Waller are all speaking in the New York session, but expect geopolitical updates to again dominate sentiment into the weekend.
