It was another busy week for markets last week, despite being in the middle of the northern hemisphere holiday season, with data, fundamental updates and geopolitical news all combining to keep traders on their toes.
The US economy was in focus on the inflation side of things last week, with the market turning decidedly more hawkish on the Fed by the end of the week after a higher-than-expected PCE print and a more hawkish Fed Chair. This week, the focus turns to the other side of the Fed’s dual mandate, the employment market, with the key Non-Farms number due out at the end of the week, as well as several other indicators.
On top of the US numbers, there are two major central bank rate calls scheduled, as well as other key data drops. And, as has become the norm, traders are expecting a few geopolitical updates to be thrown into the mix as the week progresses.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
It is a relatively quiet calendar day on Monday; however, traders are expecting lively conditions as the markets digest the updates from the Fed’s symposium in Jackson Hole over the weekend and any fresh geopolitical news. UK markets are closed for a bank holiday, which may affect liquidity later in the day, and German Preliminary CPI numbers are due out in the London session, which could see some moves in the Euro.
The Asian session is relatively quiet again on Tuesday; however, EU CPI numbers are scheduled in the London session, and the New York Day sees US data kick in in earnest for the week, with the ISM Manufacturing numbers and the JOLTS Job Openings data released early in the day.
There is a big focus on antipodean markets on Wednesday, with Australian GDP data due before the key Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate call. There is little on the cards in the London session; however, the New York session again looks set to be a busy one, with US ADP Non-Farm numbers out, followed by the Bank of Canada’s interest rate call.
The Asian session again has little of note scheduled to move markets on Thursday, while the European day will see an early focus on Swiss markets, with the key CPI data due out, with traders anticipating volatility in the franc around the number. The US session sees the usual release of the Weekly Unemployment Claims data, followed by the ISM Service PMI number, which could add some further spice to the mix ahead of the big data on Friday.
It is Non-Farm Payrolls Day on Friday, and the key US Jobs numbers are expected to dominate market moves into the weekend. There is little on the schedule in the sessions before the big data drop, and so traders are expecting relatively calm conditions prior to the New York session. Canadian employment data is also due out at the same time, but expect the US update to dominate.
