Market expected is for the month-to-month headline number to show a 0.2% increase and the year-to-year to come in around the 2.7% level, down 0.1% from last months 2.8% print but still well above the FOMC’s target rate. Any variance of 0.1% in either number is likely to see currency markets move strongly as it factors in changes in Fed rate cut expectations which have already seen some sharp moves in the last couple of weeks.
USDJPY has seen plenty of movement in the last few days and weeks and is shaping up to be another good trade on the data with it sitting near sensitive technical levels which could see stronger moves that other major pairs. It is sitting just above key trendline support on the Daily chart and a weaker number could see a strong break and big moves lower, whilst anything higher than the expected 0.2% or 2.7% could see it jump back into the range and challenge recent annual highs near 159.50.
Resistance 2: 161.99 – 2025 High
Resistance 1: 159.45 – 2026 High and Trendline Resistance
Support 1: 157.70 – Trendline Support
Support 2: 154.50 – Long-Term Trendline Support
