It was another busy week for markets last week, with geopolitical updates still dominating short-term moves whilst fundamentals have started to impact longer-term outlooks, especially with regard to the impact from the conflict in the Middle East.
This week looks like starting off in a lively fashion, with conflicting updates on a peace deal coming from the US and Iran. President Trump claiming that a deal – with the ultimate aim of reopening the Strait of Hormuz – will be announced in the coming hours, whilst Fars, the major Iranian news agency, is denying this.
Looking further ahead into the week, it’s a relatively quiet calendar week, although once again there is some key data due for release, including the Fed’s favoured inflation data, the Core PCE Price Index, and some key central bank updates.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
It is a very quiet calendar day on Monday, with nothing of note across all three trading sessions; however, there are several major centres closed for holidays, which will reduce liquidity, and with updates likely on the Iran – US conflict, traders are expecting a busy day.
It is a similar story on Tuesday in terms of the calendar day, with nothing of note due in the first two trading sessions. The US CB Consumer Confidence data is due early in the New York session, but once again, expect a busy day with those major centres back in action and likely to react to any geopolitical updates from the weekend and Monday.
The antipodes will be in focus in the Asian session on Wednesday, with key Australian CPI data due out shortly before the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its latest interest rate decision. The London session sees the release of the ECB Financial Stability Report, and while there is no major data in the New York session, we do hear from the Fed’s Lorie Logan and Lisa Cook.
New Zealand markets will be in focus again on Thursday, with the Annual Budget Release due midway through the Asian session. The European day sees a scheduled speech from Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel; however, the big event of the day comes shortly after the New York open when the key US Core PCE Price Index, Prelim GDP data, and Weekly Unemployment Claims figures are released.
Japanese markets will be in focus early in the Asian session on Friday, with the Tokyo Core CPI data due out. There is more inflation data due once Europe opens, with the German Prelim CPI data released on a state-by-state basis through the day, while UK markets will focus on a scheduled speech from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. Canadian GDP data is released shortly after the New York open, and though there is no US data of note released, we do hear from Fed members Schmid, Paulson, and Bowman across the session.
