Markets closed the week out on a positive footing on Friday as optimism increased that a peace deal would be signed between the US and Iran, with an agreed 60-day extension to the current ceasefire. However, a weekend is a long time in politics and financial markets, and updates over the weekend are much more mixed after more strikes were reported in the Gulf.
The week ahead is likely to again be dominated by geopolitical updates on progress in the Middle East. However, it is the first week of the month again, and that means a big US data drop, culminating in the Non-Farm Payroll run on Friday, which will add fundamentals into the mix alongside geopolitics, and therefore traders are expecting another volatile few days ahead.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major fundamental risk events this week:
It is likely to be a busy first trading day of the week on Monday as markets digest weekend updates on the Gulf; however, there are also a couple of scheduled events which could move markets. We hear from FOMC Member Jerome Powell for the first scheduled speech after he stepped down as Chairman early in the day in the Asian session, which should provide some volatility. There is little else scheduled for the rest of the day, although we do have the first major US data of the week shortly after the US open, with the ISM Manufacturing data due out.
There is little on the cards in the Asian session on Tuesday, but the calendar kicks in in earnest later in the day. The London session sees the release of the EU Flash CPI Estimate data, and we also hear from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey when he testifies in front of the House of Lords, while the New York session has the first jobs data out of the US for the week in the form of the JOLTS Job Openings figures.
The initial focus in Asia will be on Australian markets, with the key GDP data due out early in the day, while later it will push further north for a scheduled speech from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. The New York session has the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change numbers out, as well as the ISM Services PMI data, while we are also set to hear from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
Australian markets will again come to attention in the Asian session on Thursday, with RBA Governor Michele Bullock testifying in Canberra before the Senate, while the European session sees the latest CPI update out of Switzerland and a speech from ECB President Christine LaGarde. The US Weekly Unemployment Claims numbers are due out shortly after the New York open, and later in the session we again hear from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.
It is Non-Farms day on Friday and, as usual, there is nothing in the first two trading sessions of the day to distract markets. The big US data is released alongside Canadian employment numbers and Ivey PMI numbers, but again, the US data is likely to dominate sentiment into the weekend.
